النهار

“If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools.” _ Plato

Politics by essence, is the summation of all institutes in a certain society. These institutes include the armed forces, public education, transportation, medication, etc.. They include the parliament, cabinet, and judiciaries indeed, but most importantly, they include the implicit institute: the nature of relations between citizens. These relations display the perception of individuals to each other and their segmentation. This segmentation consists of several levels in Lebanon: mainly sectarian segmentation! This segmentation is well displayed in the governing system: the sectarian system. Hence, this implicit institute that does not have explicit public employees and paper-related bureaucracy, apparently implies the general system of governance and seems to be the dominant institute in politics. These relations are expressed on several levels such as geographic segmentation relative to sect and nationality, more broadly, demographic segmentation of sects and other societal constituents. For instance, not only each sect is limited to certain residence areas, but also refugees are limited to certain conditions and realities.

The demographics of the Lebanese society has been changing sharply in the recent years. It has been rough on the Lebanese since 2019, since an expected crisis exploded into existence. The expectation of this economic crisis was present years before it happened, or in fact exploded. Thus, the odds of mitigating it were very high. However, since the Lebanese society as individuals have lost the governance sense overall, economic advise would not have changed anything but create topics to b debated in public transportation rides and coffeeshops. Perhaps, creating some scoops and profits for the Lebanese media as well! Several economists have tried to show the danger we were imposing, but yet no response was made! Now, in 2023, the least of what we can learn from the continuous crises is that the Lebanese should take political responsibility and start questioning the rationale of the existence of the sectarian system, and the odds of shifting to the savior formula: civil state! This value is to be learned now before more implications burden the Lebanese more and more.

The underlying conditions since 2019 has resulted in a critical and alarming demographic change. It is reported that 40% of citizens decide to immigrate during their production-potential period (15-65). It is expected that due 2028, 33.33% of the population will be Lebanese residing away from their homeland, 33.33% of the population of Lebanese residing in Lebanon, and 33.33% of Syrians generally and other foreign minorities such as Palestinians, Egyptians, Ethiopians, etc… Not only that between residents, Lebanese will only constitute a half, but rather that this half is of elder or young individuals. In other words, this remaining half will constitute of a non-labor-force majority. A non-productive population. The majority of the Lebanese labor force will be of immigrants. In other words, Lebanese are currently being treated as goods & services that are being exported to send back complex and foreign currencies. The foreign currencies needed to cover for the monetary and fiscal policies failure. This “exporting of human goods” mechanism is a good explanation for the recent stable state for the USD vs. LBP exchange rate. The money transfers from abroad acted as a player resulting in currency’s equilibrium. This equilibrium was not caused by the policies of Riad Salameh or any other governor or minister of finance.

This reality imposes that Lebanese are being treated as goods which are exported, causing a severe change in the demography of Lebanon. A change on a gender-based level (females more than males), elderly more than young (the vast majority of the population is not in labor force thus not productive), and on a nationality-based level. This will indeed cause an increase in the percentage of foreigners vs that of nationals. Adding to this latter, the foreigners situation in Lebanon is not organized, but rather left as a blind spot for international intelligence to target and arm. Let us recall how did the civil war 1975 start!

This is not a call for kicking out foreigners in inhumane methods but rather a call for action on two levels. The first level is a pure Lebanese movement which is the awareness of the current realities. Lebanese should not accept to be treated as exportable goods that contribute in the continuing of this sectarian system in the cost of leaving their families and immigrating. They should be aware of the necessity of political action as well. Lebanon is not a poor country but rather a country rich with assets, so let us build it! On the other hand, any foreigner that enters the Lebanese border should be accounted for in official papers so this individual pays his taxes and is known at the armed forces. This individual should not be left to reside in the harshest conditions possible then blamed for the theft that his neighbor committed!

The ongoing demographic change is inacceptable and requires immediate action by the Lebanese. Immediate action by each one of us. Action that is organized in a political movement that pushes towards a civil state for all Lebanese. A civil system that is able to make the tough and necessary decisions that the sectarian system cannot make. Living in theory should end!