النهار

Beirut: Climate change is a global phenomenon, but few have given thought to how the economy and life will be affected here in Lebanon – it seems down the road, but according to local and international reports, the problem will begin to loom in just a few decades.

While many still cast doubt over the threat that ‘Global Warming’ poses, a recent report by the University of Washington, Seattle, warns that the climate will be even hotter than expected in coming decades.

The study “Earth likely to warm more than two degrees this century” shows heat trends busting through earlier projections of two degrees Celsius more toward 4.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The Paris climate goal agreement dealing with greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, adaptation, and finance starting in the year 2020 was set out to keep temperature increases well below two degrees Celsius.

It remains that there’s minimal chance of keeping the temperature below the desired threshold. “We’re closer to the margin than we think. If we want to avoid 2C, we have very little time left. The public should be very concerned,” warned Adrian Raftery, UW Professor of Statistics and Sociology.

The most drastic effects of global warming will range from a rise in sea-level and a shortage of water to heat waves.

“Heat waves would cause 99 percent of all weather-related deaths,” according to The Lancet Planetary Health journal study.

The latest report from the Lebanese Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a highly likely rise in sea level over the next decades from 0.2 meters to one meter. Also, models in the study demonstrate a high confidence that temperature will vary more widely with increasing heat waves.

Non-recycled waste, daily traffic, growth in population, and increased carbon emissions in Lebanon are the main factors contributing to climate change, according to experts.

“The burning of fossil fuels is the main direct contributor to this phenomenon, while deforestation and land use change are indirect causes in that they remove carbon sinks in Lebanon,” Nadim Farajallah, Director of Climate Change and Environment Program at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at AUB, told Annahar.

The impact of climate change is “wide ranging” covering the entire economy of Lebanon and all aspects of the environment, experts say.

As climate change advances, springs and rivers will dry out earlier in the year if not forever; there will be an increase in fires due to humidity, a great reduction in groundwater recharge, a weakening of crops in agricultural lands; an increase in soil erosion, and a deterioration of air quality, according to Farajallah.

“What we are witnessing this summer in Lebanon are conditions of extreme events, which are becoming more frequent due to climate change, which means that we are experiencing more consecutive hot days where average temperature is 35°C and tropical nights where temperatures are above 20°C,” said Yara Daou, Project Research Assistant in the Ministry of Environment.

Less precipitation and large scale deforestation are a distinct potential worldwide. Rainfall is projected to decrease between 10 and 20 percent by 2040 and 50 percent by 2090, according to a study called the Vulnerability and Adaptation report done by the Ministry of Environment.

As described in the study, climate change will also stimulate a decline in snow cover of 40 percent to 70 percent, a snow residence time of 45 days instead of the usual 110 days.

This will have a huge impact on Lebanon’s rivers, groundwater, sea level and ecosystems.

Parts of coastal Lebanon might find themselves underwater due to the continuous rise of sea level as a direct effect of global warming.

“If it were to continue in the future, the 5-10 mm/year rise in the sea level along Lebanon’s coast will be 12-25 cm by 2030 and 22-45 cm by 2050,” said Daou.

She added, “This is not enough for regions to disappear from the map by the mid-century, however, sea level rise will cause considerable perturbation on the socio-economic activities such as fishing, agriculture, industry, tourism and leisure that are concentrated on the Lebanese coast.”

The country will face a period of dry weather that lasts longer than cold weather, with a shortage in water supply and irrigation; hence agriculture will be deeply affected.

Siham Daher, an expert in agriculture sciences at the Economy ministry, told Annahar that the effects of global warming such as the long frequent heat waves and the seasonal upsets cause the appearance of new diseases leading to a decrease or sometimes loss of yield along with other physical damages to the plantations in Lebanon.

Adding that it also affects the exportation and importation processes, and lead to an extinction of insects that improve the soil condition.

“Already today the Lebanese economy loses about $800 million per year in just agricultural and food costs that can be traced to direct or indirect climate change-related causes,” according to the article “Will Lebanon Face it's Immense Climate Change Dangers?” by Rami G. Khouri.

Bad weather conditions, high temperature, the reduction in agricultural activity, floods, and poor human health that stem from global warming will affect the Lebanese economy, as described in the Ministry of Environment report “Economic Costs to Lebanon from Climate Change: A First Look. “

These effects will hinder the growth of the economy and thus lower Lebanon’s GDP and business activity. “This would indirectly adversely impact the incomes for workers, households, and expose the government to lower revenues and higher costs,” according to the “Vulnerability and Adaptation” report by the Ministry of Environment.

Global warming is expected to affect human health. According to Daou, higher temperature and humidity increases the risk of death directly through hyperthermia, and indirectly through respiratory/cardiovascular malfunctions.

The total number of climate-related deaths -- heat stress, malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria, cardiovascular disease, and floods - - locally would reach 34,900 in 2020, according to the Climate Change report.

The expert in Agricultural Sciences in the Ministry of Economy and Trade advises Lebanese citizens to reduce the use of cars and opt instead to use public transportation; to plant trees and flowers on the balconies, and not burn trees to reduce Co2 emissions.

“The entire government needs to take the matter of climate change seriously and should act immediately – waiting will just kill us, literally,” warned Farajallah.